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2018年進口木漿現貨市場回顧及2019年展望

發布時間:2019-02-15     文章來源:中國紙業網http://www.chinapaper.net      瀏覽量:572

中國進口木漿現貨市場價格走勢分析

2018年進口木漿現貨市場價格受供應充裕、需求偏弱及宏觀因素影響下,價格延續下行趨勢,但仍處于近5年的價格高位。影響價格走勢的原因主要有2017年四季度旺季行情下游訂單提前消化、木漿貨源陸續到港而導致的上半年價格下滑;青島上合峰會、巴西卡車司機罷工、人民幣貶值、外盤堅挺及由美方引起的貿易爭端等支撐漿市行情,漿價在三季度出現小幅回升,9月均價較6月均價漲幅在1%-7%;年內下游需求持續乏力,導致價格在9月份提前出現淡季下行態勢。

整體來看,2018年進口針葉漿、闊葉漿、本色漿現貨年均價在近5年的年均價中處于高位,較2017年年均價上漲13%、6%、18%,僅化機漿現貨年均價同比下降4%,主要受下游紙廠原紙出貨不暢、原料采買積極性偏低影響。

近5年來看,針葉漿、闊葉漿年均價最低點出現在2016年,本色漿、化機漿年均價最低點出現在2015年,2018年針葉漿、闊葉漿、本色漿、化機漿年均價較最低點分別上漲45%、41%、58%、46%。

主要驅動因素對2019年價格影響程度分析

2018年紙漿價格走勢主要受國內外經濟走勢、國內外新增產能、混合廢紙進口政策、環保政策等影響,由于各產品化工輔料價格均已上漲,各產品成本面承壓,雖2018年進口木漿價格穩中下行,但總體仍處于近5年價格高位,預計2019年紙漿價格仍存下行壓力,行業淡旺季不明顯。但值得一提的是,漂針漿期貨于2018年11月27日在上期所掛牌交易,紙漿傳統模式疊加金融屬性,或增加一項市場避險工具。

價格驅動因素影響強度表

后市展望

2018年進口木漿現貨市場價格以下跌趨勢為主,但由于經過2016-2017年價格的快速拉升,漿價處于高位盤整態勢,已明顯影響到紙廠的生產、利潤,導致紙廠原料采買積極性偏低位整理。

2018-2019年國內外新增產能持續釋放,以闊葉漿為主,針葉漿新增產能不多,同時為有效控制成本,紙廠對漿廠的入股收購使得上游供應集中度進一步提升。中國下游以木漿為原料的新增產能偏少,加之原有生產線產能利用率偏低間接影響紙漿消耗速度,預計2019年中國漿市供需弱平衡狀態或進一步削落,漿價難達2018年高位。

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